Judge Based on Performance, Not Appearance

In making decisions, it is crucial to focus on individuals' track records and performances rather than external appearances or biases. An example given is the choice between two doctors - one who looks like a Hollywood version of a doctor and the other who looks like a butcher. Despite the difference in appearances, both doctors have the same rank and track record. The key is to focus on objective measures of performance to avoid falling into the trap of superficial judgments. This concept extends to hiring practices as well; instead of valuing cosmetic attributes like the ability to write business plans, it is more beneficial to hire individuals based on their track record of making money, even if their processes are not fully understood - this is known as the 'green lumber problem'. It is a warning to be cautious of falling for cosmetic attributes or superficial qualities when evaluating performance or making hiring decisions.