Short vs. Long-Term Thinking

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Edward O. Thorp (@edwardothorp) is the author of the bestseller Beat the Dealer, which transformed the game of blackjack. His subsequent book, Beat the Market, coauthored with Sheen T. Kassouf, influenced securities markets around the globe. He is also the author of A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street, How I Beat the Dealer and the Market.

Edward was one of the world’s best blackjack players and investors, and his hedge funds were profitable every year for 29 years. He lives in Newport Beach, California.

You can find our first conversation here.

Please enjoy!

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[06:39] The value of long-term thinking and the price of short-term thinking

[07:57] What is a common stock warrant?

[09:52] Why are people generally poor at taking longer term (or alternative) perspectives?

[11:08] Conversing about numeracy and common misunderstandings

[15:00] How to become more numeracy literate

[20:18] It’s Raining Man

[22:31] The Rule of 72

[26:14] Making the best financial decisions with unknown variables

[35:57] How to have fun learning about probability and statistics

[37:47] How to get an edge in hedge fund investing (with book recommendations)

[46:23] Ed’s methods for losing (or maintaining) weight and looking 60 in spite of being almost 90 years old

[53:38] Favorite beer

[55:03] Music as stress reduction

[56:02] Avoiding unnecessary risks

[1:04:12] The age-guessing experiment

[1:06:17] Other-directed vs. inner-directed and takeaways from The Lonely Crowd by David Riesman

[1:14:35] How an 89-year-old maintains hair growth

[1:17:20] Using scrap time

[1:19:45] A big change in Ed’s later life that increased its quality

[1:22:16] New reflections, future hopes, and parting thoughts

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Past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show include Jerry Seinfeld, Hugh Jackman, Dr. Jane Goodall, LeBron James, Kevin Hart, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Jamie Foxx, Matthew McConaughey, Esther Perel, Elizabeth Gilbert, Terry Crews, Sia, Yuval Noah Harari, Malcolm Gladwell, Madeleine Albright, Cheryl Strayed, Jim Collins, Mary Karr, Maria Popova, Sam Harris, Michael Phelps, Bob Iger, Edward Norton, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Neil Strauss, Ken Burns, Maria Sharapova, Marc Andreessen, Neil Gaiman, Neil de Grasse Tyson, Jocko Willink, Daniel Ek, Kelly Slater, Dr. Peter Attia, Seth Godin, Howard Marks, Dr. Brené Brown, Eric Schmidt, Michael Lewis, Joe Gebbia, Michael Pollan, Dr. Jordan Peterson, Vince Vaughn, Brian Koppelman, Ramit Sethi, Dax Shepard, Tony Robbins, Jim Dethmer, Dan Harris, Ray Dalio, Naval Ravikant, Vitalik Buterin, Elizabeth Lesser, Amanda Palmer, Katie Haun, Sir Richard Branson, Chuck Palahniuk, Arianna Huffington, Reid Hoffman, Bill Burr, Whitney Cummings, Rick Rubin, Dr. Vivek Murthy, Darren Aronofsky, and many more.

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