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Valuation and Risk in Financial Markets
Valuation is critical, especially regarding the risk-free rate of return, which has been historically low. The misallocation of capital in both public and private markets is a concern due to the assumption of low returns being the norm. Valuations in real estate are at risk due to potential changes in capitalization rates driven by inflation. The Fed's actions are reactive to inflation, not determinative of interest rates, highlighting the significance of considering inflation in determining the right rate of return. Multiples in private markets have decreased, but not in correspondence with the decrease in interest rates, indicating a potential misalignment in valuations.