Globalization has a dual impact on productivity. It acts as a complement by providing larger markets and better economies of scale, driving productivity growth for goods like software and electronics. However, it also serves as a substitute by offering a choice between directing economic resources at uncertain projects or investing in helping other countries catch up. The challenge lies in being constrained by technology and raw physical inputs, such as oil, when extrapolating the impact of globalization worldwide. Ultimately, reliance on transformative technology becomes crucial in this complex scenario.

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