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Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
Predictive models overlook broader impacts of crisis response
Predictive models fail to consider the wider impacts of crisis response, such as aligning interests, promoting swift action, and lubricating decision-making. While models may predict outcomes based on stimulus and interventions like vaccines, they often overlook the important role of crisis-induced decisions and the need for such responses to be factored into assessments by decision-makers and analysts. Structural econometric models may forecast a quick recovery with massive government support during a crisis, but they risk missing the crucial aspect of judgment in anticipating and executing such policy responses.
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