Can We Measure Risk With the Number?

When making predictions in the stock market, it's important to remember the inherent imprecision of the process. While we strive to rigorously analyze hunches and intuition, we must never forget the nature of these inputs. Risk cannot be accurately measured with just a number, as stated by Peter Bernstein. To illustrate this point, G. K. Chesterton writes that the real trouble in this world is not that it is unreasonable or reasonable, but rather that it is almost reasonable yet not quite. Life may appear logical, but it often deceives logicians with its mathematical and regular facade.