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FiveThirtyEight Politics cover image

The View From New Hampshire

FiveThirtyEight Politics

NOTE

Impact of New Hampshire Primary on Candidates and Voter Behavior

Vivek Ramaswami's votes have largely gone to Trump, while Chris Christie's votes have largely gone to Nikki Haley. Despite the seven-point growth for both candidates, there has been no change in the gap. Voters are still shopping for a candidate, even between Haley and DeSantis, showing no significant influence from Iowa. The candidates' pitches have not changed much, with Haley emphasizing calm leadership while DeSantis focuses on criticizing Haley. The impact of Iowa is seen in the earned media for successful candidates and Trump's unifying remarks, which caught the attention of some New Hampshire voters. The final week leading to the primary is crucial for voters to make up their minds. The decision of Nikki Haley to opt out of a debate on a prominent TV station may have a critical impact on the primary, as there are few opportunities left for candidates to influence voters before the primary next Tuesday.

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