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Conversations: Special Episode with Annie Duke and Howard Marks

The Insight by Oaktree Capital

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Understanding the Imprecision of Probabilistic Decision Making

Making decisions in a probabilistic world is challenging due to the binary nature of outcomes. While we can predict probabilities, once an outcome settles, it's difficult to remember its probabilistic nature. We tend to think deterministically. Looking back, it's nearly impossible to hold onto the initial probability. Retrospective probability is elusive. Despite this, understanding and dealing with probability is crucial for making informed decisions.

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