The Insight by Oaktree Capital Conversations: Special Episode with Annie Duke and Howard Marks
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Dec 6, 2023 
Annie Duke, former professional poker player and best-selling author, joins Howard Marks to discuss decision-making under uncertainty, separating outcomes from decision quality, improving decision-making through diverse perspectives, the significance of intellectual humility and risk management, quantifying subjective judgments, and exploring risk and the diversity of outcomes.
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Separating Decision Quality from Outcome
- Decision-making involves uncertainty and the heavy influence of luck on outcomes.
- We often conflate decision quality with outcome quality, which is misleading.
Understanding Decision Quality
- Decision quality means selecting options that maximize progress toward personal goals under uncertainty.
- Good decisions depend on how well we model facts and consider other perspectives, not just outcome.
Outcome Isn't Decision Quality
- You cannot assess decision quality based purely on outcomes because luck often masks skill.
- Success may stem from aggressiveness and timing, not necessarily skill.