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Goldman's Jan Hatzius Believes the Hard Part Is Over

Odd Lots

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Insights on the US Economy and Recession Indicators

A financial expert predicts a 15% chance of recession in the next 12 months. Despite steady growth and decreasing inflation, the Fed may consider cutting rates if faced with a significant economic downturn. The most important indicator to watch is the labor market, specifically initial claims and unemployment rate. A sharp deterioration in the labor market could signal a recession.

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