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Luke Gromen: Panic In The Bond Market Will Continue Unless Oil Or Dollar Relent
Forward Guidance
The Impact of US Shale on the Oil Market and Interest Rates
US shale has significantly influenced the oil market, supporting the dollar, bond market, and keeping inflation low. However, with US shale production now decreasing due to SPR releases and Fed rate hikes, a feedback loop is triggered. Higher oil prices increase inflation expectations, leading to more treasury selling by foreigners. This drives up interest rates, government spending, deficits, and private sector supplies decrease. The toxic impact of this situation is clear, indicating that higher interest rates could paradoxically cause oil prices to rise unless the global economy crashes.
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