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Forward Guidance
Luke Gromen: Panic In The Bond Market Will Continue Unless Oil Or Dollar Relent
Sep 28, 2023
01:16:06
Snipd AI
Luke Gromen, founder of Forest For The Trees, discusses the steep sell-off in the bond market and its consequences. Topics include the relationship between declining ISM and the bond market, impact of higher interest rates on the economy, potential breaking points in the financial system, brokenness of banks and treasury market, challenges of reducing government spending, and comparing the US economy to Argentina.
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Quick takeaways
- The bond market could experience a meltdown unless the dollar weakens or oil prices decrease significantly.
- High deficits have an impact on economic growth and rising rates contribute to a feedback loop that could lead to disorderly market conditions in the future.
Deep dives
Bond market sell-off: Is it a meltdown?
The speaker discusses the recent sell-off in the bond market and questions whether it's a meltdown. They suggest that unless the dollar weakens or oil prices decrease significantly, the bond market could experience a meltdown. They compare it to the repo market turbulence in 2019 and discuss the potential impact on the TLT. They also explore whether the sell-off is driven by economic conditions or supply factors.
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