The Importance of Accepting Uncertainty and Assessing What You Don't Know

It is crucial for individuals, whether they are gamblers or investors, to recognize and accept the existence of uncertainties and acknowledge that there are things that they cannot know. Having an accurate assessment of what is known and unknown forms the basis of making sound decisions. Beliefs play a significant role in decision-making, and not knowing everything is a fact that must be embraced to maintain decision quality. When attempting to predict the future, it is essential to go beyond creating forecasts and also evaluate the probability of being correct. Some events are highly dependable, while others are completely unpredictable. It is necessary to differentiate between decisions that are reasonable to act on and those that hold no informational value. As Mark Twain expressed, the real trouble arises from what one doesn't know.