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TIP650: Stock Market Bubbles, AI, & Climate Change w/ Jeremy Grantham
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Historical Patterns Predict Recessions
The shift in interest rates significantly impacts economic stability, with historical data suggesting a strong correlation between rising unemployment and subsequent recessions. Observations indicate that a modest increase of 0.5% in unemployment typically precedes a recession 70% of the time, escalating to a 100% correlation with a 0.6% rise. Currently, unemployment stands at 0.7%, surpassing historical thresholds for recession predictions. Despite market optimism regarding soft landings and rate cuts, the patterns of leading indicators, such as bond yield spreads, suggest an impending recession. Historically, similar conditions have invariably led to downturns, casting doubt on the likelihood of an exception this time around.
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