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Austan Goolsbee on the 'Golden Path' to a Soft Landing

Odd Lots

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The Unusual Downturn: Goods Prices, Dentist Visits, and Inflation

Before COVID, inflation was at a stable 2% level. Goods were decreasing by 1% annually, housing was growing by 3-3.5% annually, and services (excluding housing) were growing by 2.5-3%. Despite some wiggle room, goods prices needed to decrease first. During COVID, demand for durable goods increased while demand for dental services decreased, making this cycle unique.

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