Odd Lots Austan Goolsbee on the 'Golden Path' to a Soft Landing
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Oct 4, 2023 
Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, weighs in on the quest for a 'golden path' to a soft landing in the economy. He discusses the delicate balance of ongoing inflation concerns amid low unemployment rates. Goolsbee analyzes the current turbulence in the bond market and shares insights on how recent labor supply shifts, particularly with rising immigration, may signal a stabilization. His optimistic outlook contrasts historical economic challenges, offering a fascinating perspective on the Fed's pivotal role in navigating these uncertain waters.
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Grandpa's Stock Tip
- Austan Goolsbee's grandfather advised him never to buy stocks after experiencing the market crash.
- This illustrates how one historical event can heavily influence long-term behavior.
Supply Shocks and Inflation
- During supply shocks, the usual relationship between economic conditions and future inflation breaks down.
- Relying on past data during these times can lead to inaccurate predictions.
Components of Inflation
- Achieving 2% inflation isn't about every sector being at 2%; it's about a balanced combination of sectors.
- Goods prices returning to pre-COVID levels is crucial for overall inflation control.