Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford cover image

Embracing the Escape Fire (with Adam Grant)

Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

NOTE

How to Know When to Pause and Rethink

To determine when to pause and rethink decisions, use insights from professional forecasters, particularly the practice of identifying conditions that could warrant changing one's mind. This encourages self-honesty and allows for flexibility in thought. When making predictions or decisions, assess the consequences and reversibility of those choices. Focus on the significance of high-stakes decisions, particularly those that are irreversible, as these situations require careful consideration and re-evaluation. Examples include career choices and personal relationships, where predictions about the future and the evolving nature of people play critical roles. In these cases, it's essential to slow down and reflect thoughtfully.

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