In this engaging conversation, organizational psychologist Adam Grant, renowned for his books *Think Again* and *Hidden Potential*, joins Tim Harford. They dive into Steve Jobs' surprising journey from disdain for mobile phones to innovating the smartphone. The duo explores the dangers of rigid thinking in crises and the critical need for adaptability. They also discuss the rise and fall of the BlackBerry, emphasizing how innovation requires flexibility and the courage to rethink established ideas for progress.
The tragic events at Mann Gulch demonstrate the dangers of cognitive entrenchment, as firefighters clung to their identity rather than adapting for survival.
The downfall of BlackBerry highlights the critical need for leaders to remain flexible and open to rethinking strategies amid technological advancements.
Deep dives
The Mann Gulch Tragedy
In August 1949, a group of 15 smoke jumpers parachuted into Mann Gulch, Montana, to combat a rapidly spreading wildfire. Their mission soon transformed into a desperate fight for survival as the fire shifted direction and barreled toward them with frightening speed. As they attempted to reach the safety of a nearby ridge, their heavy equipment hindered their escape, illustrating the physical and psychological challenges they faced. Ultimately, the foreman, Wagner Dodge, implemented an unorthodox survival tactic, which involved creating an escape fire by burning the grass in front of him. Unfortunately, most of his crew was unwilling or unable to follow this risky strategy, resulting in the tragic loss of 12 lives.
Cognitive Entrenchment and Identity
The tragedy at Mann Gulch highlights a significant failure in the mental fitness of the smoke jumpers, illustrating how cognitive entrenchment can lead to tragic outcomes. During the escape, many firefighters were unable to abandon their tools, tragically mistaking their identity as firefighters for their survival during the wildfire. Instead of dropping their heavy packs that weighed them down, they clung to familiar habits, illustrating how their identities were intertwined with their equipment. This phenomenon reflects how difficult it can be to rethink ingrained beliefs and how vital it is to reassess one’s assumptions in the face of rapidly changing circumstances.
Lessons in Rethinking from Mike Lazaridis
The story of Mike Lazaridis, the creator of the BlackBerry, serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of resisting change and the importance of rethinking strategies. Despite being a pioneer in the smartphone industry, Lazaridis ultimately failed to adapt to the evolving technology landscape, notably underestimating the impact of the iPhone. Rather than embracing the innovative features of smartphones, he remained overly invested in the existing system and the benefits of the physical keyboard. This reluctance to test alternative hypotheses resulted in the decline of the BlackBerry and highlights the necessity for leaders to remain open to rethinking their ideas and challenging their assumptions.
Cultural Failures in Wildfire Management
A more systemic issue surrounding the Mann Gulch fire is the embedded belief in wildfire suppression that persisted even when forest ecology indicated otherwise. Decades of research indicated that wildfires play a crucial role in maintaining forest health, yet firefighting policies remained unchanged until the late 1970s. The tragedy underscores a cultural failure within the wildland firefighting community to rethink its approach to fire management. This failure to consider the ecological benefits of fire not only led to avoidable loss of life but also perpetuated unsafe practices that ultimately put ecosystems at risk.
Cautionary Conversation: Steve Jobs hated his phone so much that he smashed it against a wall. He also referred to mobile carriers as "orifices". Yet he went on to invent the world's most popular smartphone. Why did he change his mind?
Tim Harford and organizational psychologist Adam Grant (Think Again, Hidden Potential) discuss the consequences of letting our ideas become part of our identity; when it's essential to adapt; and whether frogs really do stay sitting in slowly boiling water.