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The Sahm Rule and the state of the labor market today
The Psalm rule and Goldman's similar rule are getting attention as they near triggering. The rule states that if the three-month average of the unemployment rate is half a percentage point higher than the prior 12 months and the current rate is .33, it indicates an early recession. However, historical data shows that the rule may not be as relevant in this cycle. Other indicators, such as strong payroll growth and low initial jobless claims, suggest the labor market is still doing fine.