"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis cover image

Surveying 2,700+ AI Researchers on the Industry's Future with Katja Grace of AI Impacts

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

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Analysis of AI Researchers' Predictions and Task Delegation Challenges

AI researchers have observed significant changes in predictions between 2022 and 2023 surveys, particularly in the areas of human-level machine intelligence (HLMI) and full automation of labor. The predictions suggest a substantial drop in the estimated timeframes for achieving these milestones compared to previous years. The survey also highlighted a general decrease in the time estimates for narrow AI tasks. However, the current state of AI task automation falls short of enabling tasks to be delegated to AI systems with the same ease as to humans due to factors like lacking contextual understanding. Despite the challenges, AI automation can significantly save time and costs, although initial setup and context gathering remain essential for efficient task delegation.

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