The Challenges and Outlook for Negotiating Ghana's Debt Exchange

Negotiations for Ghana's debt exchange proposal are ongoing, with the private sector still having room for negotiation. Timing is crucial due to upcoming elections. While a deal by the authorities' target date is optimistic, a more favorable outcome than current market pricing is expected in H1. The terms are considered harsh, but a well-coordinated creditor committee is expected to secure better terms. A 25% principal haircut is assumed as a base case.