The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish cover image

#28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

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Valuing Own Skill Over Base Rate

Knowledge workers tend to overvalue their own skill and discount the base rate when assessing a situation. One statistical method to address this is based on a formulation in statistics that compares the standard deviations of independent distributions using a formula resembling the Pythagorean theorem. This method helps in acknowledging the importance of the base rate in decision-making.

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