How quickly is AI advancing? And should you be working in the field? (with Danny Hernandez)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
Navigating Noisy Online Discourse and Anticipating Technological Progress
Online discussions about the capabilities of current models often revolve around overestimating or underestimating their potential, causing arguments to miss the mark. The uncertainty in predicting progress for the future can be significantly larger than the difference in their arguments. Moreover, there is a discord between the norms of science, which aim to converge slowly towards truth, and the fast-paced, prediction-focused discourse encouraged by the internet. An old scientist's credibility lies in affirming possibilities rather than dismissing them, as history often reveals unexpected scientific breakthroughs.
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