Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg How quickly is AI advancing? And should you be working in the field? (with Danny Hernandez)
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Aug 23, 2023 Danny Hernandez, an early AI researcher at OpenAI and Anthropic, dives into the rapid advancements in AI technology. He discusses the remarkable growth rates in computing power and data, emphasizing their implications for the future of work. The conversation also touches on why some perceive AI as limited while exploring its automation potential, particularly in fields like radiology. Hernandez encourages more people to get involved in AI, highlighting the importance of aligning personal values with career paths and the decision-making strategies inspired by AI thinking patterns.
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Predictable AI Progress
- AI progress is predictable due to underlying exponentials like Moore's Law, increased spending, and algorithmic improvements.
- These factors combine to drive rapid advancements, making future progress somewhat foreseeable.
Algorithmic Efficiency Boosts
- Algorithmic progress significantly boosts AI efficiency, with examples like the transformer architecture yielding a 50x improvement in one year.
- Residual connections and switching to rectified linear units also provide algorithmic speedups.
Combined Exponential Trends
- Three exponential trends—compute efficiency, increased spending, and algorithmic improvements—drive AI progress.
- Combining these creates faster overall exponential growth, resulting in substantial leaps like from GPT-2 to GPT-3.