2min snip

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish cover image

#28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

NOTE

Balancing the Inside and Outside View

The concept of balancing the inside view with the outside view involves starting with a base rate rather than solely relying on personal experiences when making decisions. This approach suggests that in situations with high luck or randomness, one should lean heavily on the base rate, while in skill-based scenarios, personal experience is more relevant. Most life situations fall between these extremes, requiring a blend of both views for better decision-making. This concept not only aids in understanding progression toward the mean but also quantifying regression toward the mean.

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