Forecasting the future in AI research is challenging due to the high uncertainties in the field. A survey of elite machine learning researchers showed that there is no consensus expectation within the field, with most individuals expressing high uncertainty on critical questions. The survey revealed a median estimate of a 5 to 10% chance of AI leading to human extinction, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing AI safety. Additionally, researchers believe that there is a need for more focus on AI safety as no major breakthroughs are expected in the near term. The results of the survey highlight the significant uncertainties in AI research and the critical need for policymakers, the public, and the field itself to consider these perspectives when shaping the future of AI technology.

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