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85. Dan Gardner (part one) - superforecasting and fat tail risks
Enter the Boardroom with Nurole
Embrace Uncertainty Through Probabilistic Thinking
Super forecasters possess a foundational worldview that emphasizes probabilistic thinking, enabling them to establish and adjust base rates effectively. This worldview fosters habits of mind that prioritize acknowledging uncertainty over absolute certainty. By recognizing that we cannot be completely sure of outcomes, individuals are encouraged to assess situations in terms of degrees of certainty or uncertainty. Understanding and applying these concepts can lead to enhanced judgment and decision-making.
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