Samuel Hammond on AGI and Institutional Disruption
Future of Life Institute Podcast
Predicting AI Advancements through Information Theory
There is increasing investment and talent pouring into AI, suggesting that significant advancements are likely to come in the future./nInformation theory provides important insights for predicting AI development./nLooking at historical records and using information theoretic methodologies can help set bounds on what will be possible in AI./nThe direct approach at Epoch AI uses information theory to forecast when we will have AI that can emulate human performance./nTheir modal estimate for human-level AI is 2029, with their own personal forecasts leaning towards that timeline./nPublic perception may underestimate the potential for AI advancements, envisioning only chatbots without considering the smooth path towards systems capable of learning any arbitrary human task.
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