Samuel Hammond on AGI and Institutional Disruption
Oct 20, 2023
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Samuel Hammond, an expert in AGI, discusses how it will transform economies, governments, and institutions. Topics include AI's impact on the economy, transaction costs, and state power. They explore the timeline of a techno-feudalist future and alignment difficulty in AI scale.
AGI could lead to significant transformation of economies, governments, and institutions.
Benchmarking AI progress to human level intelligence can help estimate the timeline to an ideal human emulator.
AI advancements may not follow the historical pattern of job displacement and may also create new jobs and industries.
AI has the potential to improve government efficiency, reshape institutional structures, and transform decision-making processes.
AI can significantly reduce transaction costs, leading to changes in institutional structures and potential disruption of government services.
Deep dives
AI's Timelines to AGI and Implicit Expectations
The podcast discusses the varying timelines and expectations around Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The speaker explains that there are people who are paying close attention to AGI developments and those who are not. He highlights the different implicit timelines people have based on their behaviors and actions. The speaker also addresses the definitional confusion around AGI and suggests focusing on human-level intelligence as a benchmark. He points out that machine learning models are being trained to emulate human intelligence, and by benchmarking AI progress to human level intelligence, we can estimate the timeline to an ideal human emulator.
The Influence of AI on the Future of Work
The podcast explores the potential impact of AI on the future of work. The speaker mentions that the historical pattern of shifts in employment due to technological advancements may not necessarily apply to the advent of advanced AI. They discuss the possibility of job displacement in various industries and consider the potential for AI to take on tasks previously performed by humans. While some jobs may become obsolete, the speaker also suggests that new jobs and industries may emerge as a result of AI advancements.
The Intersection of AI and Government Institutions
The podcast delves into the implications of AI on government institutions. The speaker highlights the challenges that the US government faces in terms of readiness for advanced AI. They discuss the impact of transaction costs and how AI could potentially reshape institutional structures. The conversation touches on the potential for AI to improve government efficiency, enhance monitoring capabilities, and transform coordination and decision-making processes. The speaker also suggests that AI could lead to institutional transformation as previous technological advancements have done throughout history.
AI's Effect on Transaction Costs and Institutional Structures
The podcast explores the concept of transaction costs and their relationship to AI. Transaction costs are discussed as the various costs associated with market exchange, such as monitoring, bargaining, and information costs. The speaker suggests that AI has the potential to significantly reduce transaction costs, leading to changes in institutional structures. They provide examples of how AI is already impacting various sectors, including content moderation, productivity management, and monitoring, and discuss the potential implications for public sector institutions and government bureaucracies.
The Rise of Private Sector Disruption in Government Services
As technology advances, there is a concern that the private sector, which adopts new technologies quickly, may disrupt and displace government services. The stickiness of positions in government inhibits diffusion, leading to potential disruption. This issue arises from isolated thinking about AI, focusing only on first order effects and neglecting the second-order implications. For example, the development of automobiles did more than just replace horses; it led to the reconfiguration of economic geography and the rise of federal bureaucracies. Similarly, when thinking about AI, we need to consider not just the immediate effects but also the broader societal and institutional changes it may bring.
The Potential of AI to Increase Informational Resolution
AI has the capability to significantly increase the informational resolution of various domains. Examples include gate recognition, galaxy surveys, and even listening for keystrokes. AI can reveal latent entropy in data and extract meaningful information that was previously inaccessible. This increased resolution can have both positive and negative implications, such as improved understanding of distant galaxies or potential risks of privacy invasion. As AI continues to advance, it has the potential to reshape our understanding of various domains and the information available within them.
The Shifting Landscape of Government and the Role of AI
The diffusion of AI poses challenges and opportunities for government institutions. With the increasing adoption of AI in the private sector, government services may be gradually replaced by private alternatives that can respond more effectively to technological advancements. This could lead to a more fragmented and adversarial political landscape with private organizations taking on governance functions. However, there is also a need for fusion of AI within government to maintain state capacity and effective decision-making. Balancing the impact of AI on government institutions and ensuring alignment with societal values remains a key challenge.
Techno-feudalist Future and the Rise of Private Services
The podcast episode discusses the possibility of a techno-feudalist future where government services are replaced with private services. The example of Uber and Lyft replacing taxicabs is given, highlighting how AI and information technology can disrupt traditional regulated industries. This evolution leads to the development of private clubs, acting as vertically integrated walled gardens that provide security and new public goods enabled by AI. This trend could potentially displace formal government services in areas like food safety inspections, weather forecasts, and drug approvals. The emergence of private jurisdictions and the need for stricter oversight are also mentioned.
The Implications of AI on Social Interactions and Norms
The podcast explores how AI can challenge social norms and interactions. With the advancement of AI, the ability to read social cues and emotions through glasses or other devices becomes a possibility. While this can provide valuable information, it also raises concerns about the loss of social veils and the privacy of one's thoughts and emotions. The need for maintaining a gap between our stated preferences and our true preferences is discussed. It delves into the challenges of aligning AI systems with human values and the importance of being honest and open about our inherent biases. The role of interpretability and the progress being made in this area is also mentioned.
Samuel Hammond joins the podcast to discuss how AGI will transform economies, governments, institutions, and other power structures. You can read Samuel's blog at https://www.secondbest.ca
Timestamps:
00:00 Is AGI close?
06:56 Compute versus data
09:59 Information theory
20:36 Universality of learning
24:53 Hards steps in evolution
30:30 Governments and advanced AI
40:33 How will AI transform the economy?
55:26 How will AI change transaction costs?
1:00:31 Isolated thinking about AI
1:09:43 AI and Leviathan
1:13:01 Informational resolution
1:18:36 Open-source AI
1:21:24 AI will decrease state power
1:33:17 Timeline of a techno-feudalist future
1:40:28 Alignment difficulty and AI scale
1:45:19 Solving robotics
1:54:40 A constrained Leviathan
1:57:41 An Apollo Project for AI safety
2:04:29 Secure "gain-of-function" AI research
2:06:43 Is the market expecting AGI soon?
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