
Episode 001: Base Rates and Bees with Michael Mauboussin
The Decision Education Podcast
Common Mistakes in Decision Making and the Failure to Consider Alternatives
A significant mistake in decision making is the failure to consider alternatives, which often leads individuals and teams to make suboptimal choices. Decision makers typically rely on the 'inside view,' focusing on personal experiences and gathered information, which can narrow their perspective. This inward approach risks overlooking valuable insights that could be gained by adopting an 'outside view,' where one examines the situation in the context of broader data or reference classes based on past outcomes. The inability to balance these two perspectives—the inside view of personal input and the outside view of external examples—hinders effective decision-making. The practice of failing to explore various alternatives too quickly can result in premature conclusions, emphasizing the need for thorough alternative identification in order to enhance the quality of decisions.