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Surveying 2,700+ AI Researchers on the Industry's Future with Katja Grace of AI Impacts

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

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Analyzing Disagreement and Confidence in AI Milestone Predictions

The prediction analysis highlights that the disagreement in AI milestone predictions isn't due to different viewpoints within each person's distribution but reflects the uncertainty when averaging individual distributions. A key point is made that narrow ranges from different individuals can result in a flat distribution when averaged. The individual predictions for AI milestones show high variability and uncertainty, as indicated by steep versus slow upward sloping lines, signifying high and low confidence levels, respectively. The analysis suggests that individuals expressing high confidence often predict shorter-term milestones, while those with low confidence are uncertain about distant milestones.

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