The Effect of Higher Interest Rates on Company Earnings

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Higher interest rates are not a significant problem for US large caps as their net indebtedness is low. Good companies borrow long and fixed, while bad companies borrow short and floating. Thus, rising interest rates do not pose a real risk for investors in public markets. However, private equity and private credit face a real problem with higher interest rates. Risky, small companies in private markets have borrowed heavily in floating-rate debt, and if interest costs rise to 10%, a significant portion of their earnings will be eaten up by interest payments. This poses a direct problem for most private equity portfolio companies. Therefore, private equity, which constitutes a large portion of many portfolios, is in trouble due to higher interest rates.

Clay Finck chats with Dan Rasmussen about why Japanese equities offer some of the most attractive valuations in the market today, how stretched growth stock valuations are relative to value and much more.

Dan is the Founder and Portfolio Manager of Verdad, which is a global asset management firm that strives to achieve the highest risk-adjusted returns possible through rigorous research and its practical application.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro.

01:45 - Contrarian views of the market Dan holds relative to the rest of the market.

05:14 - Why the US is overvalued relative to international stocks.

09:19 - Historically how undervalued value indices are.

13:27 - Why Dan is bullish on Japan.

13:44 - The value mandate that Japan put in place to try and juice stock market valuations.

24:11 - Dan’s views on Japan’s policy of yield curve control.

24:42 - What’s keeping investors away from Japan’s stock market.

30:57 - What the financial accelerator is and how it relates to the 2023 banking crisis.

36:12 - How equity markets tend to behave after a Fed pause.

36:30 - How high-interest rates are affecting corporate earnings.

51:21 - Dan’s views on the Chaos Kings and their strategy of Crisis Investing.

60:40 - How Verdad’s portfolios are positioned today.

72:21 - What technologies excite Dan in creating a better society for the future.

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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