
Conversations: Special Episode with Annie Duke and Howard Marks
The Insight by Oaktree Capital
The Problem With Overconfidence
Even when predicting short-term outcomes with certainty, we must embrace uncertainty. We often overestimate our ability to notice when our forecasts are wrong and downplay the role of luck in our success. We are reluctant to admit mistakes and adjust our forecasts accordingly. By acknowledging the possibility of change and being open to adjusting our predictions, we can improve our decision-making.
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