The Insight by Oaktree Capital cover image

Conversations: Special Episode with Annie Duke and Howard Marks

The Insight by Oaktree Capital

NOTE

The Problem With Overconfidence

Even when predicting short-term outcomes with certainty, we must embrace uncertainty. We often overestimate our ability to notice when our forecasts are wrong and downplay the role of luck in our success. We are reluctant to admit mistakes and adjust our forecasts accordingly. By acknowledging the possibility of change and being open to adjusting our predictions, we can improve our decision-making.

00:00
Transcript
Play full episode

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts

Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
App store bannerPlay store banner