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Tom Chivers | It's Bayes All The Way Down... Probability & Bayes Theorem
Curious Worldview Podcast
Translating Virality into Knowledge: Understanding Bayesian Priors
Viral content often translates into broader discourse and even book deals, reflecting a latent interest within a subset of audiences. The concept of Bayesian priors illustrates how public engagement—such as tweets and shares—functions as new information that informs and updates our understanding of ideas' worth. A Bayesian prior serves as an individual's current best guess based on existing experiences, similar to expressing opinions, but framed in a more technical and authoritative manner. This approach allows for a probabilistic assessment of beliefs or predictions, enabling ongoing adjustment based on new evidence. For instance, one might assess the likelihood of job displacement due to artificial intelligence using Bayesian logic, grounding predictions on both current data and the potential for updates as new information emerges.
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