Inflation Forecast: Upside Risk Amidst Fluid Middle East Situation

The current situation in the Middle East poses an upside risk to inflation. However, gasoline prices, which make up a small part of the CPI, would need a sustained significant increase to have a lasting impact on inflation. Michael Shout believes that the recent disinflation is transitory and expects CPI to follow course with PPI moving back into positive territory.

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