Jay Bryson discusses the challenge of getting back to 2% inflation. David Kelly sees inflation coming down. Elliot Ackerman talks about the Israel-Hamas war. Michael Shaoul predicts yield curve control in the US. Sheila Kahyaoglu discusses Delta earnings.
Inflation is unlikely to change anyone's view on the economy or the Federal Reserve's stance, but getting inflation back down to 2% will be challenging.
Supply-side rebalancing and lower geopolitical tensions are expected to bring inflation down to 2% or less by the fourth quarter of next year, with opportunities in certain segments of the equity and bond markets.
Deep dives
Inflation concerns and market reactions
The podcast discusses the latest inflation data and its impact on the market. The guest, Jay Bryson from Wells Fargo, describes the CPI print as a 'damp squib' and explains that it is unlikely to change anyone's view on the economy or alter the Federal Reserve's stance. He notes that while the increase in PPI and CPI is a concern, it is largely due to the rise in goods inflation. Bryson also mentions that the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could potentially impact gasoline prices, but emphasizes that it would need a sustained increase in prices to have a lasting effect on inflation. Overall, he believes that getting inflation back down to 2% will be challenging and may require sub-trend economic growth over the next few quarters.
Inflation outlook and market implications
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, shares his perspective on inflation. He believes that the recent disinflationary effect is transitory and expects inflation to come down to 2% or less by the fourth quarter of next year. Kelly highlights the impact of supply-side rebalancing and explains that while higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could be upside risks, they are unlikely to have a significant long-term impact on overall inflation. He also discusses the potential implications for financial markets, suggesting that a 10-year treasury at around 4.5% is reasonable if inflation reaches the target of 2%. Kelly sees opportunities in certain segments of the equity and bond markets, noting that the US equity market is bifurcated and that the bond market offers good value.
The Federal Reserve and yield curve control
Michael Shaoul, CEO of Marketfield Asset Management, shares his views on the Federal Reserve's response to potential financial stability risks. He argues that the Fed is not in control of fiscal policy and suggests that yield curve control might be implemented to stabilize the bond market. Shaoul believes that the Fed has already done what it can in this monetary cycle and anticipates the potential for disorder at the long end of the curve. He emphasizes the importance of financial stability and suggests that the government's fiscal policy and budget deficit pose risks to the bond market. Shaoul advises investors to focus on long-term prices and not get overly concerned with short-term fluctuations, while also highlighting the role of fiscal and tax policies in managing deficits.
Impact on airlines and Delta's earnings
Sheila Keilu, a senior equity research analyst at Jefferies, provides insights on the impact of geopolitical events on airlines. She notes that while the conflict in the Middle East is disruptive, it is financially manageable for US network carriers like Delta Airlines. Keilu suggests that international travel may decrease, but capacity adjustments and potential rerouting of traffic can mitigate the impact. Regarding Delta's earnings report, she highlights that the airline has been able to manage higher fuel prices and maintenance expenses. Keilu mentions the changes to Delta's loyalty program and believes it is unlikely to result in a significant loss of customers. She emphasizes the limited options available for certain city pairs, contributing to the airlines' ability to maintain pricing power.
Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, says the last mile to get us back to 2% inflation on a sustained basis is tough. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, still sees inflation coming down. Elliot Ackerman, Former White House Fellow, US Marine Corps Veteran & Co-Author of 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, discusses the Israel-Hamas war. Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management CEO, sees some sort of yield curve control being brought into the US. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses Delta earnings. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance