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The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast cover image

404. A Podcast About the End of the World | Dr. Niall Ferguson

The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast

NOTE

The Problem of Conjecture: Making Decisions with Asymmetry

In the 1950s and 60s, Kissinger coined the concept of the problem of conjecture. It states that when making a decision, there is an asymmetry where taking preemptive action incurs a cost and no gratitude, while doing nothing has a low cost. This often leads decision-makers to do nothing and hope for the best, even though taking action may prevent a larger and more dangerous outcome.

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