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The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & George Robertson on Monetary vs. Fiscal Flows And What Is Truly Driving This Bull Market
Forward Guidance
Interpreting the Impact of Federal Reserve Actions
The discussion revolves around the potential effects of the Federal Reserve owning more short-dated bills, with one perspective suggesting it could lead to market bearishness due to the release of duration. However, an alternative view is that increased holdings could prompt more issuance, potentially leading to monetization. The conversation also touches on empirical evidence regarding the impact of Federal Reserve actions, such as the buying of mortgage-backed securities and treasury bonds. The complexity lies in discerning causality, as past instances show varied outcomes in yield and price movements. Moreover, there is a debate on the significance of the reverse repo facility, with contrasting opinions on its current role in Federal Reserve operations.
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