Forward Guidance

The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & George Robertson on Monetary vs. Fiscal Flows And What Is Truly Driving This Bull Market

Apr 18, 2024

Guests Michael Howell and George Robertson debate the true drivers of the bull market, with Michael focusing on global liquidity and central bank balance sheets while George dismisses their influence. Topics include contrasting views on the Fed, impact of liquidity on markets, Bitcoin ETF availability, government influence on Treasury yields, and predictions of a market downturn by 2025.

01:34:55

Episode guests

George Robertson

Michael Howell

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Global liquidity injections driving the bull market trend predicted to peak in late 2025 by Michael Howell.

George Robertson challenges the significance of liquidity in market movements, emphasizing domestic economic factors.

Debate on the impact of the reverse repo facility on market liquidity and differing views on its importance.

Analysis of government funding patterns' influence on mortgage rates, treasury yields, and risk-free rates by George Robertson and Michael Howell.

Deep dives

Michael Howell's Perspective on Global Liquidity and Market Trends

Michael Howell explains his perspective on the rise in global liquidity and its impact on the bull market. He highlights the increase in liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve and the rise in bank reserves. Howell emphasizes the global dimension of liquidity, not just limited to the Federal Reserve. He predicts the liquidity cycle to peak in late 2025, attributing the market trend to a normal investment cycle.

Anticipating a Possible Crisis Leading to Dramatic Market Growth

01:39

Interpreting the Impact of Federal Reserve Actions

02:06

Tracking Liquidity Impact on Markets

02:07

The Illusion of Quantitative Easing and the Reality of Reserve Management

02:58

Introduction

6min

Global Liquidity, Market Analysis, and Federal Reserve's Influence

19min

Exploring Bitcoin ETF Availability and Fiscal Dominance in the US Economy

2min

Liquidity Dynamics and Reverse Repo Facilities

25min

Government Influence on Mortgage-Backed Securities and Treasury Yields

26min

Federal Reserve vs Global Liquidity Models

7min

Asset Market Analysis and Investment Strategies

7min

Analysis of Potential Economic Crisis Due to Excessive Debt Issuance

3min

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and George Robertson of The Monetary Fronteir have two things in common: they both correctly predicted the renewed bull market in stocks and they both have been guests on The Forward Guidance podcast. That is where the similarities end, as Michael and George have entirely different explanations for what is driving the surge in equity prices. While Michael is renowned for his models on Global Liquidity and closely tracks the changes in central bank balance sheets (most notably the Fed’s), George dismisses the Fed entirely and thinks that monetary authorities have effectively zero influence on the economy and stock market. What ensues is a heated debate not just about what is driving the stock market and economy but about the very nature of money and credit creation itself. Recorded on April 10, 2024.

Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us

Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap

Follow George Robertson on Twitter https://twitter.com/BickerinBrattle

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Michael’s Substack https://t.co/7jRGW9iR0S

George’s Substack https://themonetaryfrontier.substack.com/

Michael’s Book https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:32) Jack's Intro

(02:28) Michael's Opening Statement

(06:09) George's Opening Statement

(18:17) The Draining of The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility

(24:59) VanEck Ad

(26:03)

(28:38) The Portfolio Rebalancing Theory (I.E. How Quantitative Easing (QE) Theoretically Works)

(45:21) Duration Impact of U.S. Treasury Issuing Longer-Maturity Paper

(51:39) Spread Between Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Yield And 10-Year Treasury Yield

(01:12:09) There's A Distortion In The Yield Curve, That's For Sure"

(01:17:47) Beyond The Fed's Balance Sheet

(01:23:18) Jack's Comment On Cause And Effect

(01:25:07) Views On Markets: George And Michael Remain Very Bullish

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Forward Guidance

The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & George Robertson on Monetary vs. Fiscal Flows And What Is Truly Driving This Bull Market

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Michael Howell's Perspective on Global Liquidity and Market Trends

George Robertson's Contrarian View on Liquidity and Market Forces

The Debate on Reverse Repo Facilities and Liquidity Impact

Impact of Government Funding on Mortgage Markets and Treasury Yields

Reflections on Risk-Free Rates and Market Dynamics

Impact of Federal Government Spending on Liquidity and Growth

Market Predictions and Speculation on Federal Reserve Actions

Anticipating a Possible Crisis Leading to Dramatic Market Growth

Interpreting the Impact of Federal Reserve Actions

Tracking Liquidity Impact on Markets

The Illusion of Quantitative Easing and the Reality of Reserve Management

Get the Snipd
podcast app

AI-powered
podcast player

Discover
highlights

Save any
moment

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Discover
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Forward Guidance

The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & George Robertson on Monetary vs. Fiscal Flows And What Is Truly Driving This Bull Market

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Michael Howell's Perspective on Global Liquidity and Market Trends

George Robertson's Contrarian View on Liquidity and Market Forces

The Debate on Reverse Repo Facilities and Liquidity Impact

Impact of Government Funding on Mortgage Markets and Treasury Yields

Reflections on Risk-Free Rates and Market Dynamics

Impact of Federal Government Spending on Liquidity and Growth

Market Predictions and Speculation on Federal Reserve Actions

Anticipating a Possible Crisis Leading to Dramatic Market Growth

Interpreting the Impact of Federal Reserve Actions

Tracking Liquidity Impact on Markets

The Illusion of Quantitative Easing and the Reality of Reserve Management

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