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How can we harness the wisdom of the crowd?
Simplifying Complexity
The Paradox of Prediction Markets: The Tendency for Influential Markets to Be Manipulated
Prediction markets, despite their forecasting accuracy, are susceptible to manipulation due to the potential impact on public perceptions and beliefs. The behavior of traders, such as placing large bets to influence market prices and public opinion, can significantly affect the perceived viability of candidates, potentially leading to self-fulfilling prophecies. The paradox lies in the fact that accurate prediction markets become attractive targets for manipulation because of their potential to sway people's beliefs.
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