Prediction markets, despite their forecasting accuracy, are susceptible to manipulation due to the potential impact on public perceptions and beliefs. The behavior of traders, such as placing large bets to influence market prices and public opinion, can significantly affect the perceived viability of candidates, potentially leading to self-fulfilling prophecies. The paradox lies in the fact that accurate prediction markets become attractive targets for manipulation because of their potential to sway people's beliefs.
Experts often build models to help predict how systems will behave. But what happens if, instead of asking the experts to build models, we ask laypeople to simply predict outcomes?
This is what happens in 'prediction markets'. And it turns out that in some situations, the 'wisdom of the crowd' often outperforms experts' models.
To break down what prediction markets are and how they work, we're joined by Rajiv Sethi, Professor of Economics at Barnard College at Columbia University and External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.
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This show is produced in collaboration with Wavelength Creative. Visit wavelengthcreative.com for more information.