Understanding Weather Forecasting: A Historical Perspective

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Weather forecasting has a surprisingly recent history that dates back to systematic efforts in the late 19th century, evolving from ancient predictions made as far back as Mesopotamia. Early forecasts relied heavily on statistical methods combined with human intuition. This complexity highlights the significant challenges involved in accurately predicting weather, contrasting the simplistic approaches of previous almanacs.

Physicist J. Doyne Farmer wants a new kind of economics that takes account of what we've learned from chaos theory and that builds more accurate models of how humans actually behave. Listen as he makes the case for complexity economics with EconTalk's Russ Roberts. Farmer argues that complexity economics makes better predictions than standard economic theory and does a better job dealing with the biggest problems in today's society.