EconTalk

Chaos and Complexity Economics (with J. Doyne Farmer)

37 snips
Aug 26, 2024
J. Doyne Farmer, a physicist and professor at Oxford, champions a revolutionary approach to economics through complexity science. He critiques traditional models for failing to capture human behavior and proposes more dynamic models that can better predict economic phenomena. The conversation touches on the impact of lending policies on the housing bubble and parallels between weather and economic forecasting. Farmer emphasizes the need for interdisciplinary dialogue to bridge gaps in economic thought, pushing for a future where complexity economics is more widely accepted.
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INSIGHT

Complexity Economics Defined

  • Complexity economics uses simulations and data to model economic behavior.
  • This differs from mainstream economics, which relies on utility maximization and equations.
INSIGHT

Quantitative vs. Qualitative Models

  • Complexity economics prioritizes quantitative models that generate testable predictions with specific numbers.
  • This contrasts with qualitative models that lack numerical precision.
ANECDOTE

Housing Market Example

  • Doyne Farmer uses the housing market to illustrate the differences between complexity and mainstream economics.
  • He explains how housing prices are set by aspiration level adaptation, not market clearing.
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