
Taking The Temperature
The Memo by Howard Marks
Pattern recognition and understanding cycles in economics and markets
The speaker developed attributes that allowed them to recognize a similar error 33 years later./nPattern recognition requires experience and practical knowledge./nCycles are defined as a series of events, each causing the next./nUnderstanding the causality behind cycles is crucial./nEconomies, investor psychology, and markets tend to swing between extremes of positivity and negativity./nCycles are the result of excesses and corrections./nBargain purchases are often found during times of negative prevailing psychology./nSelling at high prices is common during periods of excessive optimism./nMacro calls and the oak tree culture are discussed.
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