The proliferation of nuclear weapons among countries increases the risk of catastrophic failure modes. Potential technological errors, such as accidental launches or misdetections, can lead to unintended consequences. There is also a concern about irrational leadership—individuals in power may act unpredictably or maliciously. Additionally, the fear-driven preemptive strikes arise when one country perceives an imminent threat from another, potentially resulting in a devastating miscalculation. Each new country acquiring nuclear capabilities elevates the danger, as historical precedents reveal that technical failures and human errors have previously permitted the use of nuclear weapons. The likelihood of misuse grows significantly with the increasing number of nations holding these weapons.
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Has the world been "lucky" so far with respect to nuclear weapons? How many people have died from nuclear weapons? To what extent do nuclear weapons actually deter aggression? How many countries currently have nuclear weapons or are in the process of building them? How can we discourage continued proliferation of (or even the desire to own) nuclear weapons? How tightly linked are the technologies required to build nuclear energy programs and nuclear weapons programs? How does the International Atomic Energy Agency verify that countries have exactly the nuclear programs and materials they claim to have? What are the best nonproliferation or disarmament interventions being considered right now? What can the average citizen do to make a difference on these enormous issues?
Carl Robichaud co-leads Longview's program on nuclear weapons policy and co-manages Longview's Nuclear Weapons Policy Fund. For more than a decade, Carl led grantmaking in nuclear security at the Carnegie Corporation of New York, a philanthropic fund which grants over $30 million annually to strengthen international peace and security. Carl previously worked with The Century Foundation and the Global Security Institute, where his extensive research spanned arms control, international security policy, and nonproliferation.
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