Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg The alternate histories and possible futures of nuclear weapons (with Carl Robichaud)
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Feb 2, 2024 Carl Robichaud, co-leader of Longview's nuclear weapons policy program, shares his insights on the precarious global landscape of nuclear arms. He discusses whether the world has been 'lucky' regarding nuclear incidents and the deterrent effect of these weapons. The conversation dives into the motivations behind nuclear proliferation, particularly in countries like Iran and Pakistan. Robichaud emphasizes the risks posed by non-state actors and the importance of public advocacy, highlighting the need for dialogue among nuclear powers and increased funding for nonproliferation efforts.
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Nuclear Weapons and Great Power Peace
- Nuclear weapons have coincided with a period of great power peace, suggesting a deterrent effect.
- However, several close calls highlight the potential for devastating consequences if these weapons were used.
Expected vs. Actual Nuclear Deaths
- Expected deaths from a Cold War nuclear exchange between the US and Soviet Union were estimated at 300-500 million.
- This far exceeds the actual deaths from nuclear weapons (less than 1 million), suggesting we've been lucky.
Risky Investment Strategy
- Spencer Greenberg recounts a conversation with a wealthy investor who used a risky investment strategy.
- The investor almost went bankrupt by repeatedly doubling down on losing bets, illustrating the danger of low-probability, high-consequence events.