Expert in nuclear weapons and proliferation, Carl Robichaud, joins Spencer Greenberg to discuss the death toll caused by nuclear weapons, motivations for pursuing nuclear weapons, risks of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of non-state actors, interventions for a safer world, and the debate on the necessity of atomic bombings on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
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Quick takeaways
Nuclear weapons have potential benefits and risks, as they have averted large-scale wars but also pose catastrophic consequences in case of use.
Efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation require a focus on security concerns, effective measures, and international partnerships.
Preventing the spread of nuclear weapons requires addressing the dual motivations of countries like Iran and ensuring strong verification mechanisms.
Deep dives
The Threat of Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear weapons have sparked debates on whether they have been beneficial or detrimental to the world. On the one hand, they have coincided with a period of peace between major powers, potentially averting large-scale wars. On the other hand, the consequences of a nuclear war would be catastrophic, with estimates ranging from 300 to 500 million immediate deaths. The actual number of deaths from nuclear weapons in history is disputed but less than a million. However, even a small probability of a large-scale nuclear war would result in millions of deaths. Overall, the risk of nuclear weapons being used remains a concern, and efforts should focus on reducing the likelihood of their use and promoting nuclear disarmament.
The Possibility of Nuclear War
Throughout the Cold War, there were several moments when the probability of nuclear war seemed high. The Cuban Missile Crisis is a notable example where the risk of nuclear use was estimated to be between one in three and one in two. In expectation, such a crisis would have led to hundreds of millions of deaths. It is crucial to assess the historical record and acknowledge the significant consequences a nuclear war would have. While efforts have been made to limit nuclear proliferation, the world remains at risk due to security concerns and the potential escalation of conflicts between nuclear-armed nations.
Preventing Nuclear Proliferation
Preventing the spread of nuclear weapons is a fundamental goal that requires ongoing attention. Security and status are often drivers for nations seeking nuclear weapons. Efforts to prevent proliferation include international treaties, verification measures, and export controls. The presence of major nuclear powers has at times deterred smaller states from developing their own nuclear programs. However, the challenge lies in ensuring these measures are effective and fostering international partnerships to address security concerns. Enhancing detection technology, comprehensive reviews of nuclear weapon safety, and encouraging diplomatic dialogues among nations are essential steps in preventing nuclear proliferation and reducing the risk of a catastrophic nuclear war.
The Complexities of Iran's Nuclear Program
Iran's nuclear program has dual motivations, serving both as a source of nuclear energy and the potential for nuclear weapons. Initially, constraints on Iran's program were possible, but the country has progressed significantly. The options to prevent Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons are limited, with war being the only remaining option. The approach of combining rewards and punishments, as seen in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, offers a potential solution, but its effectiveness and controversy remain debatable.
The Link Between Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapons
While nuclear reactors themselves pose minimal risks, uranium enrichment and reprocessing fuel play a crucial role in nuclear weapons development. Enriched uranium can be used for peaceful nuclear energy purposes or for nuclear bombs. Similarly, plutonium from spent nuclear fuel can be used in reactors or for nuclear weapons. Building bomb-making facilities in various countries raises concerns about proliferation. International cooperation, such as fuel banks and regulated fuel markets, can help delink nuclear energy from weapons, but strong verification mechanisms are essential.
Has the world been "lucky" so far with respect to nuclear weapons? How many people have died from nuclear weapons? To what extent do nuclear weapons actually deter aggression? How many countries currently have nuclear weapons or are in the process of building them? How can we discourage continued proliferation of (or even the desire to own) nuclear weapons? How tightly linked are the technologies required to build nuclear energy programs and nuclear weapons programs? How does the International Atomic Energy Agency verify that countries have exactly the nuclear programs and materials they claim to have? What are the best nonproliferation or disarmament interventions being considered right now? What can the average citizen do to make a difference on these enormous issues?
Carl Robichaud co-leads Longview's program on nuclear weapons policy and co-manages Longview's Nuclear Weapons Policy Fund. For more than a decade, Carl led grantmaking in nuclear security at the Carnegie Corporation of New York, a philanthropic fund which grants over $30 million annually to strengthen international peace and security. Carl previously worked with The Century Foundation and the Global Security Institute, where his extensive research spanned arms control, international security policy, and nonproliferation.
Amendments:
At 00:23:10, Carl said "Stanislav Arkhipov", but he meant to say "Vasily Arkhipov".