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Luke Gromen: Panic In The Bond Market Will Continue Unless Oil Or Dollar Relent
Forward Guidance
The Relationship Between Growth, Deficits, and Rates
The bond market is not currently melting down, but it could happen unless the dollar weakens or oil prices decrease. The sell-off in bonds is influenced by better growth due to increased US federal spending and high deficits resulting from rising rates. The feedback loop of higher deficits leading to better growth and vice versa is not well understood. This cycle may lead to significant inflation and disorderly market conditions as the Fed continues to raise rates without restraint, posing a risk to long-term US Treasury investments.
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