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Luke Gromen: Panic In The Bond Market Will Continue Unless Oil Or Dollar Relent

Forward Guidance

NOTE

The Historical Manipulation of Interest Rates

The historically low interest rates are leading to challenges in rolling over the massive debt, indicating that the market might not be deep or liquid enough to handle the government deficits. The government's decision not to term out the debt can be due to the lack of depth in the market. The manipulation of interest rates has been a tactic used in the past to liquidate government debt, as seen in the example of 30-year treasuries from 1951 whose real value diminished to zero by 1980 due to inflation and interest rate changes. While this tactic might work once, it doesn't solve the underlying issues and can lead to market instability. The current situation, with the need to place trillions in debt while maintaining high debt-to-GDP ratios, raises questions about the sustainability of such strategies in the long run.

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