Tom Chivers | It's Bayes All The Way Down... Probability & Bayes Theorem
Curious Worldview
Navigating Predictions Amid Infinite Possibilities
Predicting the future involves navigating infinite possibilities based on a finite understanding of the past. While individuals can make forecasts about both everyday events and complex phenomena, it is crucial to approach these predictions with humility. This perspective acknowledges the unpredictable nature of events, as exemplified by the risk of a car running a red light. Taking probabilities into account is essential when assessing potential outcomes, allowing for risk management and the implementation of precautions. Understanding that some outcomes are more predictable than others helps in decision-making processes, but the inherent unpredictability of certain events requires careful consideration. Acknowledging limitations in knowledge and capability highlights the need for cautious optimism in predictions, balancing the potential for both positive and negative outcomes.
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