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Odd Lots cover image

Goldman's Jan Hatzius Believes the Hard Part Is Over

Odd Lots

NOTE

The Decline in Housing and Rent Inflation

Expectations for further declines in inflation, particularly in housing and rent. The weight of rent in core CPI and core PCE index is significant, supporting the prediction of deceleration. Labor market rebalancing and deceleration in core goods also contribute to this trend. The impact of a monetary policy shock on GDP growth is expected to be maximum within two quarters.

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