#201 – Ken Goldberg on why your robot butler isn’t here yet
80,000 Hours Podcast
The Cycle of Hype and Disillusionment in Robotics
The dynamics of hype and disillusionment in the field of robotics can be encapsulated in the Gartner Hype Cycle, which outlines a predictable pattern of rising expectations, a peak phase, followed by a trough of disillusionment. When initial high expectations are not met, there can be a backlash where individuals deem the technology as mere hype, potentially leading to reduced funding and interest in the field, akin to a 'winter season.' Although the technology continues to advance gradually during these downturns, the resulting innovations rarely meet the previously inflated expectations, though they are still significant. Historical parallels, such as the internet boom and subsequent bust around 2000, illustrate how initial excitement can be followed by skepticism and stagnation before a more measured appreciation of the technology emerges over time. Furthermore, the allure of robotics is complicated by a deeply ingrained cultural narrative that has long depicted artificial beings, resulting in a mix of fascination and fear. While the popular imagination frequently envisions futuristic robots, the reality of technological progress tends to be more gradual and less predictable, challenging the expectations shaped by media representation. This disparity highlights the need for a balanced understanding of the potential and limitations of robotics technology in shaping society.
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